Web3建筑师
Web3建筑师2025-12-22 09:46

科技板块回暖，背后是产业逻辑而非短期情绪

近期A股科技板块强势回暖，引发市场关注。这波科技股上涨并非一时情绪驱动的反弹，而是源自多重产业逻辑的共振。一方面，政策环境持续利好高科技领域。以人工智能为例，2025年8月国务院发布了《关于深入实施“人工智能+”行动的意见》，明确提出到2027年使新一代智能终端等应用普及率超70%，2030年达到90%，并展望2035年全面进入智能经济社会。这一系列 明确的阶段性目标 和政策支持，使得AI、软件、算力等相关项目从规划逐步进入执行和落地阶段。各地纷纷启动大型算力中心建设、鼓励企业部署AI应用，使科技板块的基本面预期显著改善。

另一方面，在技术层面，多项关键突破正在进入工程化和商业化拐点。例如，在通信与计算领域，光通信技术迎来重大升级周期。2025年9月的深圳光博会上，多家厂商展示了1.6T光模块已经量产出货，且具备研发3.2T光模块的能力。这意味着超高速光通信不再停留于实验室，而是开始实际供货，为数据中心和AI算力网络提供支持。同样地，在芯片、计算架构以及AI应用方面，国产GPU、大模型应用等也频传捷报：国内多家AI芯片独角兽密集推进上市融资，行业从“技术可行”快速转向“商业落地”。例如，生成式AI领域在经历了概念验证阶段后，当前企业更关注如何将大模型应用于工业、医疗等场景，实现真正的商业价值。

市场讨论焦点也因此发生转变：过去投资者热议的是某项前沿技术“能否实现”，现在关心的是这项技术“能否赚钱”。当下，科技公司的估值体系正从讲故事转向拼业绩，这其实标志着行业进入成熟期的起点。中长期来看，这种从可行性到商业性的讨论转变，往往预示着板块将迎来重新定价。投资者对科技板块的信心建立在扎实的产业逻辑上——政策托底、技术突破和应用前景，为这一轮回暖提供了坚实支撑。这也提醒我们，与其将近期上涨简单归因于情绪修复，不如看到背后产业环境已然改变，真正有基本面支撑的科技领军者，或将迎来更持久的价值重估。

32
0
0
Background
Avatar

Web3建筑师

2025-12-22 09:49

科技板块回暖，背后是产业逻辑而非短期情绪

[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"近期A股科技板块强势回暖，引发市场关注。这波科技股上涨并非一时情绪驱动的反弹，而是源自多重产业逻辑的共振。一方面，政策环境持续利好高科技领域。以人工智能为例，2025年8月国务院发布了《关于深入实施“人工智能+”行动的意见》，明确提出到2027年使新一代智能终端等应用普及率超70%，2030年达到90%，并展望2035年全面进入智能经济社会"},{"type":"link","url":"https://hk-official.cmbi.info/upload/531a60df-a917-4b20-b244-ceb6e39ae66c.pdf#:~:text=2025%20%E5%B9%B4%208%20%E6%9C%88%E5%9B%BD%E5%8A%A1%E9%99%A2%E5%8F%91%E5%B8%83%E3%80%8A%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%B7%B1%E5%85%A5%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD%E2%80%9C%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%2B%E2%80%9D%E8%A1%8C%E5%8A%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E8%A7%81%E3%80%8B%EF%BC%8C%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%A0%E5%BF%AB%20AI%2B%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%2F%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%2F%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E6%8F%90%E8%B4%A8%2F%E6%B0%91%E7%94%9F%E7%A6%8F%E7%A5%89%2F%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%2F%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%90%88%E4%BD%9C,%E4%BA%91%E3%80%81AI%2B%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%92%20%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E4%B8%8E%20AI%2B%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%EF%BC%8C%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E8%85%BE%E8%AE%AF%E3%80%81%E9%98%BF%E9%87%8C%E5%B7%B4%E5%B7%B4%E3%80%81%E7%99%BE%E5%BA%A6%E3%80%81%E5%BF%AB%20%E6%89%8B%E3%80%81%E5%95%86%E6%B1%A4%E3%80%81%E9%87%91%E8%9D%B6%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E3%80%822%EF%BC%89%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%EF%BC%9A%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE%E5%85%B3%E6%B3%A8%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E3%80%81%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E4%BE%9B%E5%BA%94%E5%95%86%E5%8F%8A%20%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E6%96%B0%E5%85%B4%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%EF%BC%9B%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E4%B8%AD%E9%99%85%E6%97%AD%E5%88%9B%E3%80%81%E7%94%9F%E7%9B%8A%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E3%80%81%E4%B8%AD%E5%85%B4%E9%80%9A%E8%AE%AF%E3%80%81%E5%8C%97%E6%96%B9","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":"。这一系列 明确的阶段性目标 和政策支持，使得AI、软件、算力等相关项目从规划逐步进入执行和落地阶段。各地纷纷启动大型算力中心建设、鼓励企业部署AI应用，使科技板块的基本面预期显著改善。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"另一方面，在技术层面，多项关键突破正在进入工程化和商业化拐点。例如，在通信与计算领域，光通信技术迎来重大升级周期。2025年9月的深圳光博会上，多家厂商展示了1.6T光模块已经量产出货，且具备研发3.2T光模块的能力"},{"type":"link","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-09-16/doc-infqrvxr3853164.shtml#:~:text=%E4%B8%8A%E5%91%A8%EF%BC%8C2025%E5%85%89%E5%8D%9A%E4%BC%9A%E5%9C%A8%E6%B7%B1%E5%9C%B3%E5%8F%AC%E5%BC%80%EF%BC%8C%E6%88%91%E4%BB%AC%E8%A7%82%E5%AF%9F%E5%88%B0%EF%BC%9A1%EF%BC%89%E5%85%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9D%97%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%EF%BC%9A%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%86%851","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":""},{"type":"link","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/stockzmt/2025-09-16/doc-infqrvxr3853164.shtml#:~:text=%E5%85%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9D%97%EF%BC%9AAI%20%E6%97%B6%E4%BB%A3%E5%85%89%E6%A8%A1%E5%9D%97%E5%8D%87%E7%BA%A7%E5%91%A8%E6%9C%9F%E7%BC%A9%E7%9F%AD%EF%BC%8C1,6T%E7%9A%84%E5%8A%A0%E9%80%9F%E5%88%B0%E6%9D%A5%EF%BC%8C%E8%A1%8C%E4%B8%9A%E9%BE%99%E5%A4%B4%E5%8E%82%E5%95%86%E5%9F%BA%E4%BA%8E%E9%A2%86%E5%85%88%E7%9A%84%E7%A0%94%E5%8F%91%E5%AE%9E%E5%8A%9B%E5%8F%8A%E4%BA%A4%E4%BB%98%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%EF%BC%8C%E6%9C%89%E6%9C%9B%E7%8E%87%E5%85%88%E4%BA%AB%E5%8F%97%E7%BA%A2%E5%88%A9%E3%80%82","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":"。这意味着超高速光通信不再停留于实验室，而是开始实际供货，为数据中心和AI算力网络提供支持。同样地，在芯片、计算架构以及AI应用方面，国产GPU、大模型应用等也频传捷报：国内多家AI芯片独角兽密集推进上市融资，行业从“技术可行”快速转向“商业落地”。例如，生成式AI领域在经历了概念验证阶段后，当前企业更关注如何将大模型应用于工业、医疗等场景，实现真正的商业价值。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"市场讨论焦点也因此发生转变：过去投资者热议的是某项前沿技术“能否实现”，现在关心的是这项技术“能否赚钱”。当下，科技公司的估值体系正从讲故事转向拼业绩，这其实标志着行业进入成熟期的起点"},{"type":"link","url":"https://hk-official.cmbi.info/upload/531a60df-a917-4b20-b244-ceb6e39ae66c.pdf#:~:text=2025%20%E5%B9%B4%208%20%E6%9C%88%E5%9B%BD%E5%8A%A1%E9%99%A2%E5%8F%91%E5%B8%83%E3%80%8A%E5%85%B3%E4%BA%8E%E6%B7%B1%E5%85%A5%E5%AE%9E%E6%96%BD%E2%80%9C%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%2B%E2%80%9D%E8%A1%8C%E5%8A%A8%E7%9A%84%E6%84%8F%E8%A7%81%E3%80%8B%EF%BC%8C%E6%8F%90%E5%87%BA%E5%8A%A0%E5%BF%AB%20AI%2B%E7%A7%91%E5%AD%A6%E6%8A%80%E6%9C%AF%2F%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E5%8F%91%E5%B1%95%2F%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E6%8F%90%E8%B4%A8%2F%E6%B0%91%E7%94%9F%E7%A6%8F%E7%A5%89%2F%E6%B2%BB%E7%90%86%E8%83%BD%E5%8A%9B%2F%E5%85%A8%E7%90%83%E5%90%88%E4%BD%9C,%E4%BA%91%E3%80%81AI%2B%E4%BA%A7%E4%B8%9A%E4%BA%92%20%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E4%B8%8E%20AI%2B%E6%B6%88%E8%B4%B9%E4%BA%92%E8%81%94%E7%BD%91%E7%9A%84%E7%9B%B8%E5%85%B3%E6%9C%BA%E4%BC%9A%EF%BC%8C%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E8%85%BE%E8%AE%AF%E3%80%81%E9%98%BF%E9%87%8C%E5%B7%B4%E5%B7%B4%E3%80%81%E7%99%BE%E5%BA%A6%E3%80%81%E5%BF%AB%20%E6%89%8B%E3%80%81%E5%95%86%E6%B1%A4%E3%80%81%E9%87%91%E8%9D%B6%E5%9B%BD%E9%99%85%E3%80%822%EF%BC%89%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%EF%BC%9A%E5%BB%BA%E8%AE%AE%E5%85%B3%E6%B3%A8%E5%9B%BD%E4%BA%A7%E7%AE%97%E5%8A%9B%E3%80%81%E5%8D%8A%E5%AF%BC%E4%BD%93%E8%AE%BE%E5%A4%87%E4%BE%9B%E5%BA%94%E5%95%86%E5%8F%8A%20%E4%BA%BA%E5%B7%A5%E6%99%BA%E8%83%BD%E6%96%B0%E5%85%B4%E5%BA%94%E7%94%A8%E9%A2%86%E5%9F%9F%EF%BC%9B%E6%A0%B8%E5%BF%83%E6%A0%87%E7%9A%84%E5%8C%85%E6%8B%AC%E4%B8%AD%E9%99%85%E6%97%AD%E5%88%9B%E3%80%81%E7%94%9F%E7%9B%8A%E7%A7%91%E6%8A%80%E3%80%81%E4%B8%AD%E5%85%B4%E9%80%9A%E8%AE%AF%E3%80%81%E5%8C%97%E6%96%B9","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":"。中长期来看，这种从可行性到商业性的讨论转变，往往预示着板块将迎来重新定价。投资者对科技板块的信心建立在扎实的产业逻辑上——政策托底、技术突破和应用前景，为这一轮回暖提供了坚实支撑。这也提醒我们，与其将近期上涨简单归因于情绪修复，不如看到背后产业环境已然改变，真正有基本面支撑的科技领军者，或将迎来更持久的价值重估。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"\n\n\n\n"}]}]
JU Square

免责声明：含第三方内容，非财务建议。
详见《条款和条件》

相关文章
Ju.com Announcement on the Establishment of a $30 Million AI Special Investment Fund
Ju.com Announcement on the Establishment of a $30 Million AI Special Investment Fund

To seize the global opportunities brought about by the rapid development of artificial intelligence (AI) technology and to further promote the deep integration of cutting-edge technology with the real economy and the digital economy, Ju.com officially announces the establishment of a $30 million AI special investment fund.

This fund will systematically invest around core AI technologies and the next generation of intelligent product forms. Key investment areas include, but are not limited to: • AI foundational models and underlying technologies • AI Agent products and solutions, encompassing autonomous decision-making, task execution, and automation scenarios • Intelligent robotics-related products, including software-driven robots, Embodied AI, and human-robot collaboration systems • Convergent applications of AI and Blockchain / Web3, such as smart contract automation, on-chain governance and risk control, and decentralized intelligent execution systems • Commercialization and implementation of AI in fields like fintech, enterprise services, content generation, and data analytics

This special fund will invite several listed companies and industrial capital to co-invest. By leveraging synergies from industrial resources, application scenarios, and financial support, it aims to provide portfolio projects with full-cycle empowerment, from technology validation and commercial implementation to long-term strategic partnerships.

Ju.com has always adhered to a long-term value and technological innovation-oriented approach, continuously building an open, robust, and sustainable technology investment ecosystem. The establishment of this AI special fund represents a crucial strategic move by Ju.com in the context of cutting-edge technology and the intelligent trend, and also reflects our high recognition of the long-term industrial value of AI, AI Agent, and robotics technologies.

In the future, Ju.com will collaborate with outstanding entrepreneurial teams, technical talent, and industrial partners worldwide to jointly promote the large-scale application and industrial upgrading of the next generation of intelligent products.

This is hereby announced.

Ju.com

#AI #Jucom

Bitcoin Breaks Above $91K as Risk Appetite Rebounds Amid Geopolitical Noise - Jan 4, 2026
Bitcoin Breaks Above $91K as Risk Appetite Rebounds Amid Geopolitical Noise - Jan 4, 2026

On January 4, the crypto market carried forward its early-year momentum, with Bitcoin decisively breaking through a key resistance level and lifting overall sentiment. Over the past 24 hours, market activity expanded notably, with total turnover and liquidations reaching $107.27 billion, while the Fear & Greed Index climbed to 40, signaling a clear rebound in risk appetite compared with year-end conditions.

Bitcoin rose 1.13% to $91,144.55, posting an intraday high of $91,574.40 and a low of $89,314.02. The successful break above the $91,000 level and subsequent consolidation suggest sustained bullish momentum. Ethereum followed with a 0.77% gain to $3,145.37, trading within a $3,166.41–$3,076.75 range and maintaining a steady correlation with BTC’s upward move. Positioning remained balanced, with BTC longs at 49.88% and ETH longs at 49.62%, indicating that the advance has been driven more by spot demand and trend-following capital than by excessive leverage.

Structural opportunities remained active across smaller-cap assets. FMC/X surged 70.24%, while NEXAI/USDT and PIPPIN/USDT advanced 41.53% and 24.14%, respectively. These moves reflect selective capital rotation as traders respond to Bitcoin’s breakout without broad-based risk expansion.

Macro and fundamental signals added depth to the move. The U.S. government disclosed that its cryptocurrency holdings now exceed $30 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for 97% of the total, reinforcing BTC’s status as the dominant digital reserve asset. On the Ethereum front, Vitalik Buterin stated that ZK-EVM and PeerDAS will transform Ethereum into a new form of high-performance decentralized network, strengthening long-term scalability and data availability narratives. Despite heightened geopolitical headlines, including reports of U.S. military strikes in Venezuela, Bitcoin prices remained resilient, underscoring its growing role as an asset capable of withstanding external shocks.

Overall, the opening days of 2026 show a market regaining directional clarity. Bitcoin’s breakout provides a clear technical anchor, while Ethereum’s roadmap supports medium-term confidence. With liquidity and sentiment improving in tandem, the crypto market appears to be entering the early phase of a new structural advance.

#cryptocurrency #blockchain

Polymarket Survival Guide: Your Edge in the $40B Prediction Markets Boom
Polymarket Survival Guide: Your Edge in the $40B Prediction Markets Boom

2025 marked prediction markets' breakthrough into mainstream consciousness. Polymarket alone processed over 95 million trades with $21.5 billion in volume, while the entire ecosystem reached $40-44 billion. With 1.77 million total users and monthly actives stabilizing at 400,000-500,000, these numbers dwarf many DeFi protocols.

💰 The Reality Check: Why 95% Lose

Only 5.08% of wallets realized profits over $1,000, with just 30.2% profitable overall. The top 0.04% of addresses captured over 70% of total profits, accumulating $4 billion in realized gains. This zero-sum game demands strategy over speculation.

🔄 The Turning Point: ICE's $2B Investment

In October 2025, the NYSE parent company ICE valued Polymarket at $9 billion with a $2 billion investment. The platform acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for U.S. market re-entry and announced migration from Polygon to its own Ethereum L2 (POLY). Market expects token generation event after the 2026 World Cup.

🚨 Risk Controls: The Zero Line of Defense

Never withdraw directly from exchanges to Polymarket. The correct flow is Exchange → Wallet → Polymarket for deposits, and reverse for withdrawals. This extra step costs minimal gas but eliminates account freeze risks. Explicitly prohibited regions include USA, UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, and Taiwan. Recommended regions are Japan, Korea, India, Philippines, Spain, Portugal, and Netherlands.

📊 Airdrop Positioning: Become a High-Quality User

The platform values users who keep markets efficient and participate in price discovery. Key weight factors include Maker orders over Taker orders, Split/Merge operations for ~4% annual position rewards, diverse market participation across crypto/politics/sports/culture/economics, multiple time horizons from short-term to long-term markets, and sustained holding periods. The optimal trade size is $50-$500, with behavioral diversity and holding time carrying the highest weights.

🎯 Six Arbitrage Strategies for Profit

Cross-platform arbitrage exploits price differences where YES on Platform A plus NO on Platform B totals under $1. Multi-outcome arbitrage buys all mutually exclusive options when their combined YES prices sum below $1. Cross-event arbitrage identifies semantically identical events priced differently on the same platform. Term structure spread trades mispriced time value, buying longer-dated options while selling shorter ones. Rule-edge trading focuses on settlement criteria rather than headlines, finding value in the fine print. High-probability compounding targets events over 90% probability with under 72 hours to settlement, generating 80-150% annualized returns through disciplined execution.

💡 The Long-Term Builder's Edge

Prediction markets are approaching their "iPhone moment." Technology is ready, early user education is complete, and breakout events are imminent. Success rewards those who build information advantages, understand underlying mechanics, and prepare systematically. Don't chase short-term gains—build repeatable edges through compliant fund flows, line-by-line rule verification, and disciplined execution from low-risk arbitrage to late-stage strategies.

Read the complete survival guide with advanced strategies and risk mitigation: 👇 https://blog.ju.com/polymarket-prediction-markets/?utm_source=blog

#Polymarket #PredictionMarkets #Crypto #DeFi

Bitcoin and Ethereum Consolidation Reflects a New Post-Institutional Rhythm

The consolidation of major crypto assets within key price ranges does not necessarily signal the end of a trend. It more likely reflects a shift in market rhythm following increased institutional participation.

ETF flows have allocation characteristics, and their behavioral patterns differ significantly from retail sentiment. When volatility declines and options markets become more cautious, it often indicates that the market is waiting for new external variables.

In such phases, emotion-driven trading strategies tend to be less effective.

Domestic AI Chips Going Public Faster: Capital Markets Are Paying for “Certainty”
Domestic AI Chips Going Public Faster: Capital Markets Are Paying for “Certainty”

A listing wave among domestic chip companies. Recently, a number of domestic AI chip firms have accelerated capitalization: Moore Threads listed on Shanghai’s STAR Market with a market cap that once exceeded RMB 300 billion (longbridge.com); MetaX followed; Biren Technology launched a Hong Kong IPO plan targeting about $600 million in fundraising (finance.yahoo.com). This wave suggests that in AI chips, “domestic substitution” has become a clear direction strongly favored by capital markets. Even though domestic GPUs still lag global leaders in near-term performance, investors remain willing to support these companies at high valuations.

Certainty carries a premium. Under high geopolitical uncertainty, the certainty of domestic substitution itself commands a premium. Compared with projects that may be technically superior but strategically uncertain, domestic AI chips offer a clearer investment logic: regardless of external conditions, China’s demand for sovereign and controllable compute is structural and increasing. That certainty is why capital pays. In other words, capital does not always chase the theoretical “best” solution; it often favors the most sustainable solution. As domestic substitution becomes a national strategy and a market consensus, companies aligned with that direction are viewed as having long-term value. This explains the strong investor enthusiasm even when short-term profitability remains limited.

A shift in market preferences. The listing boom reflects a shift in how markets evaluate opportunities. In earlier cycles, investors chased high-growth, high-risk concepts; now, amid geopolitical and supply-chain risks, certainty and controllability have become key evaluation criteria. For companies, this implies that aligning with strategic national direction and delivering indispensable value improves the chance of sustained capital support. Domestic AI chip companies are leveraging this tailwind to grow rapidly, strengthening industrial resilience while creating a synergy between industry and capital.

PancakeSwap's ambition: Why do top DEXs want to incubate a prediction market?

PancakeSwap incubates the prediction market platform Probable, which is far more than just adding a product feature. It also reveals the strategic evolution of top DeFi applications: Expanding from a single "trading venue" to a comprehensive "on-chain casino/casino" ecosystem.

Strategic logic deduction:

1. User retention and value-added: The prediction market has strong entertainment and user stickiness , which can effectively improve user engagement rate and stay time, guide traffic to the PancakeSwap main station and create new sources of income.

2. Ecosystem collaboration: Probable seamlessly integrates PancakeSwap's liquidity and exchange functions to form an experience loop. Its automatic token conversion is the best example.

3. Seize the track: The prediction market is regarded as a key track in 2026 by institutions such as a16z, with huge trading volume (the peak of the sector in 2025 will reach $10 billion per month). PancakeSwap seizes the position in advance through incubation.

Challenge: Faced with the Network Effect and Liquidity Depth of mature platforms such as Polymarket (with monthly trading volume exceeding $2 billion), Probable needs to prove that its "zero commission" strategy is enough to attract users to migrate.

Analysis of ecosystem strategy:https://blog.ju.com/probable-prediction-market-bnb-chain/?utm_source=blog #DeFi #ecosystem #strategy #competition #PancakeSwap