预测市场2026展望：双寡头格局已定，年交易量剑指400亿美元

[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"预测市场正从小众加密工具演变为主流金融基础设施。2025年，全球预测市场交易量预计将达到"},{"text":"400亿美元","bold":true},{"text":"，同比增长高达"},{"text":"400%","bold":true},{"text":"。这个高速增长的赛道，已由两家巨头牢牢掌控："},{"text":"Kalshi与Polymarket，合计占据99%的市场份额","bold":true},{"text":"。"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"增长驱动力：","bold":true}]},{"type":"numbered-list","children":[{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"巨头整合与投资","bold":true},{"text":"："},{"text":"Robinhood与Kalshi整合","bold":true},{"text":"，触达其数千万用户；"},{"text":"洲际交易所（ICE）向Polymarket投资20亿美元","bold":true},{"text":"，为其提供顶级传统金融背书。"}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"监管套利与体育叙事","bold":true},{"text":"：在美国，预测市场在"},{"text":"50个州合法","bold":true},{"text":"，而传统体育博彩仅在31个州合法。这使其成为体育交易的新渠道，预计将贡献长期交易量的44%。"}]}]},{"type":"list-item","children":[{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"机构化数据产品","bold":true},{"text":"：Polymarket的概率信号正通过ICE分发给全球机构，成为与价格、情绪并列的"},{"text":"新型市场情报","bold":true},{"text":"。"}]}]}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"观察","bold":true},{"text":"：这不再只是赌场，而是信息发现引擎和金融数据源。你看好预测市场成为下一代主流金融产品吗？"}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":"行业深度分析：","bold":true},{"type":"link","url":"https://blog.ju.com/zh-hans/prediction-markets-2026-growth/","children":[{"text":"https://blog.ju.com/zh-hans/prediction-markets-2026-growth/"}]},{"text":""}]},{"type":"paragraph","children":[{"text":""},{"type":"link","url":"https://blog.ju.com/zh-hans/prediction-markets-2026-growth/","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":"\n"},{"type":"topic","character":"预测市场","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Polymarket","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"Kalshi","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"金融科技","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "},{"type":"topic","character":"行业报告","children":[{"text":""}]},{"text":" "}]}]