巨额期权到期下的比特币震荡：这是机构市场的正常节奏

On January 4, the crypto market carried forward its early-year momentum, with Bitcoin decisively breaking through a key resistance level and lifting overall sentiment. Over the past 24 hours, market activity expanded notably, with total turnover and liquidations reaching $107.27 billion, while the Fear & Greed Index climbed to 40, signaling a clear rebound in risk appetite compared with year-end conditions.

Bitcoin rose 1.13% to $91,144.55, posting an intraday high of $91,574.40 and a low of $89,314.02. The successful break above the $91,000 level and subsequent consolidation suggest sustained bullish momentum. Ethereum followed with a 0.77% gain to $3,145.37, trading within a $3,166.41–$3,076.75 range and maintaining a steady correlation with BTC’s upward move. Positioning remained balanced, with BTC longs at 49.88% and ETH longs at 49.62%, indicating that the advance has been driven more by spot demand and trend-following capital than by excessive leverage.

Structural opportunities remained active across smaller-cap assets. FMC/X surged 70.24%, while NEXAI/USDT and PIPPIN/USDT advanced 41.53% and 24.14%, respectively. These moves reflect selective capital rotation as traders respond to Bitcoin’s breakout without broad-based risk expansion.

Macro and fundamental signals added depth to the move. The U.S. government disclosed that its cryptocurrency holdings now exceed $30 billion, with Bitcoin accounting for 97% of the total, reinforcing BTC’s status as the dominant digital reserve asset. On the Ethereum front, Vitalik Buterin stated that ZK-EVM and PeerDAS will transform Ethereum into a new form of high-performance decentralized network, strengthening long-term scalability and data availability narratives. Despite heightened geopolitical headlines, including reports of U.S. military strikes in Venezuela, Bitcoin prices remained resilient, underscoring its growing role as an asset capable of withstanding external shocks.

Overall, the opening days of 2026 show a market regaining directional clarity. Bitcoin’s breakout provides a clear technical anchor, while Ethereum’s roadmap supports medium-term confidence. With liquidity and sentiment improving in tandem, the crypto market appears to be entering the early phase of a new structural advance.

#cryptocurrency #blockchain

2025 marked prediction markets' breakthrough into mainstream consciousness. Polymarket alone processed over 95 million trades with $21.5 billion in volume, while the entire ecosystem reached $40-44 billion. With 1.77 million total users and monthly actives stabilizing at 400,000-500,000, these numbers dwarf many DeFi protocols.

💰 The Reality Check: Why 95% Lose

Only 5.08% of wallets realized profits over $1,000, with just 30.2% profitable overall. The top 0.04% of addresses captured over 70% of total profits, accumulating $4 billion in realized gains. This zero-sum game demands strategy over speculation.

🔄 The Turning Point: ICE's $2B Investment

In October 2025, the NYSE parent company ICE valued Polymarket at $9 billion with a $2 billion investment. The platform acquired a CFTC-licensed exchange for U.S. market re-entry and announced migration from Polygon to its own Ethereum L2 (POLY). Market expects token generation event after the 2026 World Cup.

🚨 Risk Controls: The Zero Line of Defense

Never withdraw directly from exchanges to Polymarket. The correct flow is Exchange → Wallet → Polymarket for deposits, and reverse for withdrawals. This extra step costs minimal gas but eliminates account freeze risks. Explicitly prohibited regions include USA, UK, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, and Taiwan. Recommended regions are Japan, Korea, India, Philippines, Spain, Portugal, and Netherlands.

📊 Airdrop Positioning: Become a High-Quality User

The platform values users who keep markets efficient and participate in price discovery. Key weight factors include Maker orders over Taker orders, Split/Merge operations for ~4% annual position rewards, diverse market participation across crypto/politics/sports/culture/economics, multiple time horizons from short-term to long-term markets, and sustained holding periods. The optimal trade size is $50-$500, with behavioral diversity and holding time carrying the highest weights.

🎯 Six Arbitrage Strategies for Profit

Cross-platform arbitrage exploits price differences where YES on Platform A plus NO on Platform B totals under $1. Multi-outcome arbitrage buys all mutually exclusive options when their combined YES prices sum below $1. Cross-event arbitrage identifies semantically identical events priced differently on the same platform. Term structure spread trades mispriced time value, buying longer-dated options while selling shorter ones. Rule-edge trading focuses on settlement criteria rather than headlines, finding value in the fine print. High-probability compounding targets events over 90% probability with under 72 hours to settlement, generating 80-150% annualized returns through disciplined execution.

💡 The Long-Term Builder's Edge

Prediction markets are approaching their "iPhone moment." Technology is ready, early user education is complete, and breakout events are imminent. Success rewards those who build information advantages, understand underlying mechanics, and prepare systematically. Don't chase short-term gains—build repeatable edges through compliant fund flows, line-by-line rule verification, and disciplined execution from low-risk arbitrage to late-stage strategies.

The consolidation of major crypto assets within key price ranges does not necessarily signal the end of a trend. It more likely reflects a shift in market rhythm following increased institutional participation.

ETF flows have allocation characteristics, and their behavioral patterns differ significantly from retail sentiment. When volatility declines and options markets become more cautious, it often indicates that the market is waiting for new external variables.

In such phases, emotion-driven trading strategies tend to be less effective.

A listing wave among domestic chip companies. Recently, a number of domestic AI chip firms have accelerated capitalization: Moore Threads listed on Shanghai’s STAR Market with a market cap that once exceeded RMB 300 billion (longbridge.com); MetaX followed; Biren Technology launched a Hong Kong IPO plan targeting about $600 million in fundraising (finance.yahoo.com). This wave suggests that in AI chips, “domestic substitution” has become a clear direction strongly favored by capital markets. Even though domestic GPUs still lag global leaders in near-term performance, investors remain willing to support these companies at high valuations.

Certainty carries a premium. Under high geopolitical uncertainty, the certainty of domestic substitution itself commands a premium. Compared with projects that may be technically superior but strategically uncertain, domestic AI chips offer a clearer investment logic: regardless of external conditions, China’s demand for sovereign and controllable compute is structural and increasing. That certainty is why capital pays. In other words, capital does not always chase the theoretical “best” solution; it often favors the most sustainable solution. As domestic substitution becomes a national strategy and a market consensus, companies aligned with that direction are viewed as having long-term value. This explains the strong investor enthusiasm even when short-term profitability remains limited.

A shift in market preferences. The listing boom reflects a shift in how markets evaluate opportunities. In earlier cycles, investors chased high-growth, high-risk concepts; now, amid geopolitical and supply-chain risks, certainty and controllability have become key evaluation criteria. For companies, this implies that aligning with strategic national direction and delivering indispensable value improves the chance of sustained capital support. Domestic AI chip companies are leveraging this tailwind to grow rapidly, strengthening industrial resilience while creating a synergy between industry and capital.

PancakeSwap incubates the prediction market platform Probable, which is far more than just adding a product feature. It also reveals the strategic evolution of top DeFi applications: Expanding from a single "trading venue" to a comprehensive "on-chain casino/casino" ecosystem.

Strategic logic deduction:

1. User retention and value-added: The prediction market has strong entertainment and user stickiness , which can effectively improve user engagement rate and stay time, guide traffic to the PancakeSwap main station and create new sources of income.

2. Ecosystem collaboration: Probable seamlessly integrates PancakeSwap's liquidity and exchange functions to form an experience loop. Its automatic token conversion is the best example.

3. Seize the track: The prediction market is regarded as a key track in 2026 by institutions such as a16z, with huge trading volume (the peak of the sector in 2025 will reach $10 billion per month). PancakeSwap seizes the position in advance through incubation.

Challenge: Faced with the Network Effect and Liquidity Depth of mature platforms such as Polymarket (with monthly trading volume exceeding $2 billion), Probable needs to prove that its "zero commission" strategy is enough to attract users to migrate.

Analysis of ecosystem strategy:https://blog.ju.com/probable-prediction-market-bnb-chain/?utm_source=blog #DeFi #ecosystem #strategy #competition #PancakeSwap